Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Top 10 locks for Web 2.0 in 2006

Everyone seems to be doing predictions at the moment, so I thought I'd up the ante. If any of these predictions do NOT come true in 2006, I will submit to having an entire can of paint (1 litre minimum) poured over my head. That's one can of paint for each wrong prediction folks, and they'll be in different citrus colours. In the unlikely event, GIFs of the dousing will be taken and uploaded to this blog next December. So, here goes.

#10. Sploggers, keep on sploggin'.
Google will not do anything that is greatly effective against the spam blogging menace, meaning that at least 80% of all pings to the blog networks will be splogs by the end of the year. Paint colour: red.

#9. Spruikers, keep on spruikin'.
Robert Scoble will not go a calendar month without a least five favourable mentions of Microsoft projects. John Battelle will not go a calendar month without mentioning his book. Steve Gillmor will not go a calendar month without mentioning attention. Paint colour: dark blue.

#8. GEMAYAers, keep on GEMAYAin'.
Not a week will go by without a story related to Google, eBay, Microsoft, Amazon, Yahoo or AOL appearing on tech.memeorandum with at least ten blog entries linking to it. Also, not a week will go by without one of those stories being on top of the tech.memeorandum page. Paint colour: light blue.

#7. Snarkers, keep on snarkin'.
The amount of regularly-updated blogs whose sole purpose is to criticise Web 2.0 and/or its people will double, at least. Let's say there's a half a dozen now, so make the target 12. Paint colour: yellow.

#6. Misogynists, keep on missin'.
There will be at least half a dozen vehement attacks on women in Web 2.0, which will seem (to me) to be overblown compared to similar bloke-on-bloke arguments. Paint colour: purple.

#5. Tontos, keep on tontin'.
Rogers Cadenhead will not go a calendar month without mentioning Dave Winer and/or one of Dave's pet themes. Alex Barnett will not go a calendar month without mentioning Steve Gillmor and/or attention. I will not go a calendar month without mentioning Memeorandum and Gabe Rivera. Paint colour: brown.

#4. Yankees, keep on yankin'.
None of the GEMAYA companies will buy a Web 2.0 startup from outside the US for more than US$20 million. Paint colour: green.

#3. Robbers, keep on robbin'.
At least a dozen new words or phrases will be coined to describe old concepts. Paint colour: pink.

#2. Winer, keep on whinin'.
Dave Winer will not go a calendar month without complaining about not being given credit for something, nor complaining about Google. Paint colour: orange.

#1. Haters, keep on hatin'.
At least a dozen of Winer's posts will start flame wars across the blogosphere. Paint colour: white (for whiteanting).

There you have it. It would be worth having paint poured all over me for any of those not to come true in 2006, so I'll be half-cheering for them. As far as judging the various categories, I am the final judge and no correspondence shall be entered into. I think you'll find I'm a fair arbitrator.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What are your toughts behind #4?
-Mario

7:04 am, December 22, 2005  
Blogger Paul Montgomery said...

Mario, I'm guessing that this Web 2.0 thing is very American-centric, to the extent that this new wave of startups that are built to flip will only ever succeed in getting bought if they are in Silicon Valley.

2:49 pm, December 22, 2005  
Anonymous Mario Rizzuti said...

It has to be almost completely about contacts and pr and very little about the actual project, then.

Maybe a non-american project which is able to strategically build some american presence into the project (developers, an investor or something).

Anyway I think you are right; I don't see it happening, neither.

7:45 pm, December 22, 2005  
Blogger Kevin Leversee at gmail.com said...

Maybe a non-american project which is able to strategically build some american presence into the project (developers, an investor or something).

Hmm,

What about a small Agile web 2.0 company that has Australians, Americans, Pinoys, and Indians?

many hands many people many lands.

-Kev

11:14 am, December 29, 2005  
Blogger Paul Montgomery said...

I think Riya is about as multinational as a startup can get, and that only has two countries involved, and only because of the connection the founders have to both countries. Beyond anything that close, startups would tend to get unfocused, I feel.

2:32 pm, December 29, 2005  

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